Tuesday, May 06, 2008

Calling it Wrong

So it looks like my prediction about the election will turn out to be wrong. I'm headed for bed with the spread at 53-47 for Hillary in Indiana and 59-39 for Obama in North Carolina. In other words, Hillary's going to win Indiana (though media stubbornly refuses to call it - probably because Lake County results aren't in at all yet), but not by nearly as much as she needs to. By the end of the night, it'll be something really close - 3-4%. And she's getting completely creamed in North Carolina.

My basic argument is that Clinton is the more electable general election candidate, and so the DNC will be looking for an excuse to hand it to her at this point. If she had been able to pull off a more convincing win in Indiana and narrow the gap a bit more in NC, they might well have done. But they can't do it without an excuse and risk another 1968.

I'd say at this point that Obama's margin in North Carolina is looking solid enough that it almost doesn't matter what happens in Indiana. Granted, only 33% of the results are in in NC, compared with almost 70% in Indiana. Clinton may well gain in NC. But I notice from CNN's map that Buncome County - the last big prize - isn't in for NC yet, and there's still a lot of steam left in Forsyth County. Obama may well have done better than a 20% margin by the time I wake up.

Who's to say - the night is young. But if things keep going the way they're going now, it's looking like I'll have egg on my face, and Obama will have cinched it by tomorrow. No doubt it will drag on longer, officially. But I don't see how the DNC can deny Obama a win after a showing in delegate-rich NC as strong as the one he's currently polling.

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