Tuesday, January 08, 2008

Off to Bed Without Supper

Alright, well, this whole thing in New Hampshire is pretty disappointing. Ron Paul can't even get 10% - in NEW HAMPSHIRE of all places! He's behind Giuliwhatsy, who didn't even campaign there, for a lackluster 5th-place finish. Crap.

That pretty much takes the steam out of my hopes for him. I don't think he'll do as well in Florida or Michigan.

The good news is that Huckabee seems effectively smacked down. Granted, he's in 3rd place, and granted, New Hampshire was always going to be tough for him, and granted, he may well still go on to win South Carolina. But I don't see it coming together for him in Michigan or Florida. By the time Super Tuesday rolls around, he'll be unambiguously trailing the pack. No doubt God's still got his fingers crossed, but it's looking like 2008 isn't going to be the year He came home.

The bad news is that we still have no f-in clue who the Republican nominee is going to be. And that's - to put it mildly - off the charts unusual. Republicans usually know years in advance who's gonna be riding their steed. Right now there's just no way to know. I guess Giuliani will win Florida pretty handily, but Michigan is anyone's guess. Giuliani and McCain are more likely than Romney there (despite the fact that Romney's dad was once Michigan's governor), but not so's you would rule a Romney win out.

Romney's the center of it, really. Despite one-going-on-two second-place finishes and a win that didn't matter in Wyoming, he's easily the front-runner on delegate strength. If you keep coming in second, but different guys get first each time, you're still good to go. If Romney wins on the strength of his second-place finishes??? Well, it'll be nothing if not interesting come November!

As for the Democrats ... I don't really much care between Obama and Hillary, but I was hoping for an Obama win just because that would keep things interesting for a while. And it looks like it could still happen. As I type this about 70% of the votes are in, and he's only 3% behind her. But it seems more likely she'll cinch it ... and then go on to greater things in the other primaries. Mostly I'm just happy that idiot Edwards isn't charting. The sooner that clown's out of politics the better for all concerned, really. I don't think he's gonna make VP this time. Hatin' it for him.

Mostly I'm just disappointed in Ron Paul. Without a substantial improvement in New Hampshire over Iowa, there's simply no way he'll run as an independent or third-party candidate. More's the pity.


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